Forecast the spends on coupons launched by a major CPG firm in North America


Client was facing challenge to accurately estimate the cost and redemption of coupon as this was done manually by coupon managers. Client wanted a data driven spends forecast to help marketing and finance managers make informed decisions.


We forecasted the total spend on two types of coupons – inflight and out-of-box coupons. We did this by:

  • Creating a data architecture in Azure to automate data extraction process
  • Multiple forecast techniques using coupon parameters such as face value, duration, days in market of the coupon
  • Transformation of ML prediction to data structures that can be consumed by PowerBI

Key Benefits

The solution provided a coupon stimulator which predicts the duration and face value of the coupon to optimize spends

It also provided an interface to user with report on coupon spend forecast to identify drivers of change and deep dive at a coupon level the reason for change from previous month


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Our solution was able to reduce the time required for data extraction process from ~800 hours/year to less than 100 hours/year

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Our solution was able to achieve ~94% accuracy for In-flight coupons and ~80% accuracy for out-of-box coupons

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