APPROACH

We created a sophisticated univariate time series forecasting model, which forecasts at day, country, line of business gain for rest of the days of current month

  • Time series techniques were used to generate the base forecast for the month
  • Holiday correction was applied on the base forecast, which adjusts forecast for day based, date based and lunar holidays

KEY BENEFITS

  • Client has visibility into health of business and can compare day level forecast vs the actual transaction to understand if the month will end at above target or below target
  • Frontend of Tableau dashboard enables quick consumption of the forecasting model and helps country managers plan and take action in case the model predicts below target for the month end

RESULTS

  • The model achieves >95% accuracy for key countries and >85% accuracy for rest of them
  • The tableau dashboard has ~200 active users spread across the globe

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